[Crouch Potato]

Ok, some thoughts on the game:

+Absence of playmakers - only Thurston, Wallace and Cam Smith are what you call genuine playmakers. Bird and Hunt aren't the creative types and I think that could affect the scoring in this game.

+NSW Forwards - NSW have the better forward pack, but a couple of things to consider. A) If the QLD forwards can hold off the NSW forwards, Back superiority should see them home. B)NSW forwards seem to be a poor mix - Laffranchi, Hoffman, Fitzgibbon, Gallen, Mason, Tupou - all are more backrowers than front-rowers. You still need someone to take it up the middle, rather than just skirt on the fringes. Also most are 80minute players, and a bit of their value is in their ability to play the full 80. How will Bellamy manage that?

+The QLD left winger: The QLD winger is quite a prolific scorer. A couple of years ago Mogg got a double in a game and Inglis on the left wing has got a few too. I suspect this was in part due to Lockyer and Hunt in the team (For the Broncos, they have a set play where they go to the left wing with two passes/cut outs for them to score. Steve Michaels, on the left wing, scored 3 first tries last year for Brisbane. 2 of the past 6 at least SoO FTS has been QLD left winger, who tonight I believe will be Tate.

+Craig Bellamy: Without a doubt the best coach going around. His management of the Storm is superb. They are disciplined, play to their strengths, defensively organized and extremely efficient. He is miles ahead of Murray or Stuart as a coach and the forward pack at his disposal is 5-star. Bellamy likes to dominate in the forwards and set up the Storms' victories - the ingredients appear to be there.

The other points have been touched on pretty well, especially the ground hoodoo. I think QLD have 1 win and 1 draw from their visits to ANZ Homebush.

Now with all that said and done, I have to say I don't have strong feelings on the game. If NSW forwards find their rhythm I think it will be exceptionally close, and the ANZ Homebush hoodoo has to be considered. Also, if its wet, this will help NSW, as QLD's advantage is in the backs, and expansive football is harder in wet conditions.

So anyway, two bets for me:

Game to be drawn @ 80mins @ 26.00 (Sportsbet)
Origins are notoriously clsoe and difficult to predict. I think at least 2-3 of the past 15 have gone to golden point - perhaps even more. From that POV 26 is value. Also, most club games are 26.00 for golden point, and Origin games are a better chance. This is reflected by the other books, who have gone 21s.

Ryan Hoffman Channel 9 MOTM @ 31.00 (Sportsbet)
If NSW win, it's going to be in the forwards. 2 recent Channel 9 MOTM recipients (Laffranchi - City v Country and Heighington - Knights v Tigers) were forwards who make a lot of tackles and lead their team's hit up count, making lots of metres. Hoffman fits this bill easily, making 30+ tackles a game and 15-20 runs with 150m+ made. He is starting tonight, which gives him the edge over Laffranchi, and his ability to skirt on the edges of the ruck may see him score a try or make a break or two. If it's a tight and low scoring game, this will help a forward stand out over a playmaker and Hoffman is at least as good a proposition as Mason or Gallen, who are almost half the odds.