Originally Posted by danrem  I am new to this!!
Hull have one foot in the play-off final having won 2-0 at Vicarage Road on Sunday and they look a knocking bet at 5/4 to finish the job off at the KC Stadium.
Watford fans will point to the Danny Shittu goal which was wrongly disallowed when the game was at 0-0 as to why the are heading north with a mountain to climb, but the honest answer really is that Hull were the better team, showed the more composure, played the better football and ultimately deserved to leave with a huge foot planted down Wembley way.
Heading into this match the form of the two sides could not have been much different with Hull on fire and Watford in turmoil, and while Aidy Boothroyd tried to put on a brave face after the final whistle, even he must know deep down that this Watford side have been shot to pieces for a long time now and the summer is needed to workout where it all went wrong for the Hornets.
What is even worse for Watford and their slim chances on Wednesday is that star defender Danny Shittu looks like to miss out with a hamstring problem, while captain John Eustace is suspended after getting sent off for an apparent head-butt on Hull captain Ian Ashbee.
With these two players missing and Watford looking toothless in attack we simply have to fancy Hull to continue their fine run of form and to get the all important first goal and to finish Watford once and for all, with their heads sure to go if they go a goal down at the KC Stadium.
Veterans Dean Windass and Nick Barmby produced superb performances at Vicarage Road and will be asked to do the same again on Wednesday and with just three defeats at home all season and Hull absolutely brimming with confidence, a similar scoreline to Sunday's looks well on the cards.
Watford may have won 10 times on the road this season, but they have lost four of their last six games (including a 3-0 drubbing by Hull at the KC), looked shaky at the back once Shittu came off, and with the Hornets having to commit men forward this could play perfectly into the hands of the Tigers who can bide their time and take the sting out of the Hornets before administering the killer blow.
After watching both UEFA Cup semi-finals my initial reaction was to side with Zenit St Petersburg ahead of their final with Rangers in Manchester.
They annihilated German champions Bayern Munich, while Rangers somehow won on penalties after barely registering a chance in 210 minutes of football against Fiorentina.
It's a classic style versus substance encounter, yet as the final draws nearer this looks less and less like a foregone conclusion in my eyes.
The key statistic from Zenit's semi-final against Bayern Munich in time may prove not to be the four goals they scored but the booking of Pavel Pogrebniak, their lethal striker and the tournament's top goalscorer with 11.
Not only has he scored the bulk of their goals in this competition, but he has scored the vital ones too, a point emphasised by his strikes against Bayern Leverkusen and Bayern Munich in the latter rounds.
That yellow card against Bayern means he will miss the final, though, and that is a huge blow to the Russian outfit.
Andrei Arshavin is a quality player, but by his own admission is just as happy making assists, while Argentine Alejandro Dominguez is a similarly creative type without being as accomplished in front of goal.
These two could well spearhead Zenit's attack and though they have bags of talent it is a concern that neither has the natural goal-getting threat that Pogrebniak provides.
Zenit's attacking verve has got them this far, but out of the 14 goals they have scored in the knockout stages Pogrebniak scored half of them.
If Zenit's key weapon is halved in its potential effectiveness then Rangers' is at full strength.
Their solid and consistent back four of Kirk Broadfoot, David Weir, Carlos Cuellar and Sasa Papac were the starting back-line seven times in their eight knockout ties in this competition, and five times they kept a clean sheet.
When Christian Dailly stepped in for Weir in Sporting Lisbon, they also conceded nothing in a 2-0 victory.
All four look sure to start on Wednesday, and though Rangers' whole team and formation is crucial in keeping out their opponents a solid and consistent back four is a reassuring asset to have.
I think it's safe to assume both teams will be adopting their familiar styles in the final, so we can be fairly sure Zenit will have the bulk of possession, with Rangers hitting the Russians on the counter-attack.
The absence of Pogrebniak could be crucial and consequently Zenit may just struggle to break down Rangers' stubborn rearguard, just as Fiorentina and Sporting Lisbon did before them.
No goalscorer is available at 7/1 and half of our staking plan will be going on that bet which is more than a fair price given Rangers' recent record in this competition.
The other half will be split three ways in the 'time of the first goal' market.
Staking a third on the first goal being scored between 61-70 minutes (14/1), 71-80 minutes (22/1) and 81 minutes-full-time (18/1) ensures we will be paid out if it's goalless on the hour mark.
That is too tempting to resist given we expect this to be a tight encounter with few chances.
If the tie is to be decided in 90 minutes it could well be with a late goal for either team - a counter-attack from Rangers or a Zenit goal earnt by pressure.
Either way it makes sense to take the insurance given the size of the odds on the first goal being scored late on. |