Gut feel, it's a pretty easy fold
- you've just paid the blinds - you have a circuit ahead of you (by the time the blinds get back to you you will no longer be the short stack) - you dont want to be calling to race at this stage - if you race, you're 50% to get eliminated there and then - if you fold, there are enough short stacks, you have to be about 80% to get a seat minimum
At this stage, "the gap" is massive - you want to be getting your money in first.... you dont want to be calling, even with relatively big hands - again, especially if he's been tight....