SAO PAOLO vs GREMIO
Straight away no bet for me. Usually I'd jump all over SP at anything near odds of evens at home - but they have a very important match Vs Fluminense in the Libertadores on Thursday - so some players will be rested. Gremio can be a tough team to beat, though SP are still favourites. Under is possible but I rarely get under, hence:
No bet
SP/Gremio will be televised live on
bet365.com for anyone who is interested.
NAUTICO VS GOIAS
I think the odds are far too short on a Nautico win here at under evens. Two attacking teams here - Nautico were only bettered by Cruzeiro for over betting last year. Goias play three attackers, and always seem to go for the win - wth a dodgy defence last year. I am often a bit reluctant to start with over/under bets this early but I cannot resist here.
PICK - over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 BETFAIR - 2/10 VITORIA SALVADOR VS CRUZEIRO
Usually I would be all over Cruzeiro here, they have the ability to squash some of the smaller teams in this league- BUT they may be suffering a hangover from losing to Boca Juniors on Wednesday in the Libertadores. I am sure new boys Vitoria will want to get off to a strong start -and they scored and conceded like mad in Serie B last year. I dont need to highlight why Cruzeiro are good for overs. Odds of 1.8 plus look real value for over 2.5 goals here.
PICK - over 2.5 goals @ 1.84 BETFAIR - 2/10 
Fingers crossed......