copy/pasted from my blog
Feel free to critique/criticize !
Bundesliga seemed really hard to find good spots in this weekend, and I can't say I'm actually in love with any of the picks, but since I've done pretty well in the league I settled on the following four :
Dortmund +0.5 +109 at Bielefeld. Bielefeld has put together a decent run lately, but so has Dortmund since the horrible week where they got destroyed by both Bayern and Hannover. Bielefeld needs to win, desperately, and Dortmund is in no mans land, but all that said I still don't think Bielefeld can be that much of a favorite since Dortmund IS the much better side.
Hertha +0.25 -119 at home vs Nurnberg. Same situation as above. Just because teams are in 12th place doesn't mean they suddenly stop playing. Hertha beat Leverkusen and Dortmund beat Stuttgart with nothing to play for just last week, so how on earth is the better team a dog at home ? These guys ARE professionals.
Duisburg vs Bayern, under 2.75 -108. Duisburg should actually believe they can get something out of this game, so I expect this to be a really tight match unless Bayern scores early. Besides that, Bayerns road games have generally been low scoring.
Schalke vs Frankfurt, under 3 +113. This is the bet I am least comfortable with, maybe I just got suckered by the price. 4 is a lot of goals, and Schalke aren't exactly Werder Bremen when it comes to free flowing attacking soccer. Of course, Frankfurt could somehow decide 'What the hell, we'll try to win' and play an end-to-end game which they will lose 4-2, but a defensive approach seems more likely.