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Old 07-05-2008, 21:10   #5 (permalink)
Sawyer
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Join Date: 18 Dec 2007
Posts: 154
Default Re: MLB: May 7th picks

LAA @ KC
UNDER 8.5 RUNS!

I'm not a big fan of J. Weaver but I must admit that he's an ok pitcher. On the other side, Greinke is one of my favourite pitchers but the problem is Angels are very hot on the road at the moment and Royals are having a very hard time to score against visitors!

Angels and Royals will meet in the last game of their series while game's total is sitting at 8! Check out the market and you'll find 8,5 line as well..
Royals are on a 2-game losing streak against Angels at home! In fact, in a situation like this it's always a good thing to bet on home team. We call it "Home Chase" but as I mentioned above La Angels are very hot on the road so I like to skip side bet for this one. What about o/u?

Los Angeles Angels will try to extend their winning streak to 5 when they meet Royals at Kauffman Stadium in the last game of their series..
Righthander Jered Weaver will take the mound for the Angels to start this game. Weaver is 2-4 this season with a 4.36 ERA.
On the other side, Royals will give the ball to Zach Greinke in this contest. Righthander Greinke is 3-1 with a 1.47 ERA so far this season.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Kansas City!
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Angels's last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City!
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games!
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing at home against LA Angels!
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Kansas City's last 20 games at home!
I'm expecting a low-scoring game tonight. Royals are close to victory imo but Under 8,5 Runs is much better.

SF @ PIT
Over 9,5 Runs

Zito is completely a joke this season! He made an awful start with 6,31 NPERA! I think he must carry on his carrer as bullpen..

San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet in second game of their series at PNC Park while game's total is sitting at 9,5!

Barry Zito will be the starting pitcher for the Giants tonight. Lefthander Zito is 0-6 this season with a 7.53 ERA. Ouch!

Pittsburg Pirates will give the ball to Phil Dumatrait. The Pirates lefthander has a 9.00 ERA to go along with a 0-0 record this season.

Trends

Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. National League West.
Over is 16-5 in Pirates last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 6-2 in Pirates last 8 games following a win.
Over is 9-3 in Pirates last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 6-2 in Pirates last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 38-13-1 in Pirates last 52 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 17-6 in Pirates last 23 games as a favorite.
Over is 24-9-4 in Pirates last 37 Wednesday games.
Over is 13-5 in Pirates last 18 games as a home favorite.
Over is 41-16-1 in Pirates last 58 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Over is 5-2 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 20-8 in Pirates last 28 overall.
Over is 20-8 in Pirates last 28 on grass.
Over is 11-5 in Pirates last 16 home games.
Over is 37-17-1 in Pirates last 55 during game 2 of a series.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh!

Umpire Trends

Over is 4-0 in Drakes last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate.
Over is 5-2 in Drakes last 7 games behind home plate vs. Pittsburgh.

I'm expecting a high scoring game tonight! Just pick Over 9,5 and enjoy the game!

TAM @ TOR
TOR ML

Home Chase, anyone?

Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will meet on the second game of their series at Rogers Centre and baseball fans will enjoy the battle of rivals!
The Rays will give the ball to starter Matt Garza in this one. Righthander Garza is 1-0 this season with a 6.16 ERA.
On the other side, starting this game for the Blue Jays will be Shaun Marcum! The righthander has a 2.70 ERA to go along with a 3-2 record this season. According to Jeff Sagarin's Pitcher Rankings, Marcum is listed 5th with 2.51 NPERA!

Revenge!

Toronto Blue Jays lost yesterday but tonight they have a great chance to win! First of all, Blue Jays were swept in previous meeting at Tampa Bay. Marcum is a great pitcher and Toronto has bullpen advantage as well!

These Trends are ok but..

Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games on field turf.

This trend is a little bit misleading:

Rays are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings!

Hımm, I think it's time to go against the trends! These statistics should change somehow, I can't really see Tampa Bay 6-0 against Toronto!
Odds for -1.5 handicap are cool but Toronto is not a score-like-crazy (or maybe run like crazy?) team so I like to Moneyline here..
I'm expecting Toronto to win tonight..

SDG @ ATL
UNDER 8,5 RUNS!

Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will meet at Turner Field tongiht while game's total is sitting at 8.5!

The Padres will give the ball to Randy Wolf! Wolf has a 2-1 record and a 3.57 ERA this season. Righthander is listed 14th in Jeff Sagarin's Pitcher Rankings with 2.82 NPERA!

On the other side, Braves will counter Wolf with Tim Hudson! The Braves righthander has a 2.95 ERA to go along with a 4-2 record this season. He is listed 7th in Jeff Sagarin's Rankings with 2,26 NPERA!

What about Trends?

Under is 4-0 in Wolfs last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 5-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1-1 in Braves last 6 on grass.
Under is 16-5 in Braves last 21 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

More Trends..

Under is 4-1 in Hudsons last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Hudsons last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 22-7-2 in Braves last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Hudsons last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Zzzzzzz..

Under is 19-7-1 in Braves last 27 games following a win.
Under is 8-3-1 in Braves last 12 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Hudsons last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Under is 8-3 in Hudsons last 11 starts overall.
Under is 8-3 in Hudsons last 11 starts on grass.
Under is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.

More Trends?!

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta!
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games on the road!

Hey I know these trends & statistics are boring but don't forget that these are key to winning in baseball! Just pick Under 8,5 and enjoy the game!!
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