Copied and pasted this post from the other thread..... A few people agreed with me - a few people disagreed but now there is a league 1 thread up and running thought id move it here anyway.....
Carlisle v
Bournemouth - 7/2 skybet - or 15/8 draw no bet stanjames
*Please note
Bet365 are now 5/2 for the bournemouth win and only 13/8 on the draw no bet - makes my 5/2 on the draw no bet look like a good bet anyway! Must have been some money for bournemouth on
bet365!*
Heres my post.....
''
Skybet and
Bet365 both go 7/2 on the bournemouth win at carlisle on saturday which i think is an absolute steal to be honest. They are also 5/2 on the draw no bet with
bet365 which is what i will be going for. And this is me speaking as a carlisle fan... heres why.
Ignore the league table for a second, and look at the facts. Most of you will obviously know that bournemouth have won their last 6 games, and need to win this one last game to keep their survival hopes alive. Less of you will know that carlisle have lost their last 3, and have only gained 5 points from a possible 21. Fair enough in the bigger picture carlisles home record is superb, but they have only actually won one of their last 4 homes, bournemouth have won their last 3 aways, including at swansea and must feel confident of making the greatest ever escape in history and getting their 7th successive win.
Carlisle are struggling with injuries at the moment as well, star striker garner has been missing a while, but now they will also have their best defender livesey suspended after his straight red against millwall, where to be honest, carlisle should have been 4 or 5 down at half time, and that was before the sending off. His usual replacement, paul reid, is injured also and to be fair we are really struggling and confidence seems to have been drained from the players. Earlier in the season, particularly at home we could play badly and grind out wins, but that capability his disappeared and this is reflected in the recent form.
Sceptics to this bet might say carlisle need to win to have any chance of automatic promotion. Well the general feeling amongst the fans and it seems players is that weve had our chance and are happy to settle for the playoffs, and i cant see both doncaster AND forest both slipping up anyway. This will probably be a good crowd, but also in some parts a negative one, as some people are questioning john wards tactics and are getting on the back of some players also. I think bournemouth's added confidence will therefore lead them to a win, although at odds of 5/2 for the draw no bet i am quite happy to take this price at less of a risk.
Cue carlisle to pull out the performance of the season and win 4-0 (which i wouldnt complain about obviously!) but on a serious note i think the bookies havent priced this properly and this is why i recommend this bet.
My tip - Carlisle
v Bournemouth - 5/2 draw no bet - bet365 '' *Please note this price is no longer available*