[rooster]

A quick analysis of the lays since I started posting these as follows:

No of Lays: 45
Successful: 33 (73% success rate - not strike rate!!!)
Profit: 12.85 points (that's adding 10% to SP price and deducting 5% comm.)
POT: 28.5% (very healthy)
Average price of losing lays: 1.54 (just over 6/4)

So the initial results are holding up well but it's early days and as I said at the start, these are all forecast favourites in fields of 8 or less which is a notoriously difficult end of the market to be laying in.

I have been staking these in a way where I'm willing to risk 10% of my bank on each lay and I will record them in this way from now on. I will base the divisor at 10% above SP ie: if SP is 9/4 then the stake would be 10/2.47 (2.25+10%). Bank of 100 points would now stand at 135.48.

Results to date: (figure after SP is level stake profit/loss followed by profit/loss when liability is 10% of bank)

22-Apr-08 225 KEMP 9/4*Beautiful Lady, L 9/4F 0.95 4.05
325 FOLK 5/2*Hereford Boy W 15/8F -2.10 -10.00
335 KEMP 6/4*Grande Caiman L 6/4F 0.95 6.06
350 SOUTH 11/4*Kensington, L 9/4JF 0.95 4.05
400 FOLK 7/4*Lupita, L 9/4F 0.95 4.05
505 FOLK 11/4*Calistos Quest, L 9/4F 0.95 4.05
515 KEMP 6/4*The Carlton Cannes, 2ND 4/5F 0.95 11.36
645 BATH 6/4*Sugar Ray, W 1/1F -1.10 -10.00
23-Apr-08 200 CATTERICK 5/2*Keiser Blue, L 7/2 0.95 2.86
310 CATTERICK 11/8*Planetarium L 8/13F 0.95 14.93
320 PERTH 6/4*Fleet Street, 2ND 11/4F 0.95 3.31
330 NOTTINGHAM 4/7*Curtain Call W 8/11F -0.80 -10.00
24-Apr-08 200 BEVERLEY 11/4*Ron´s Princess L 11/4JF 0.95 3.31
235 BEVERLEY 13/8*Duke Of Touraine, W 11/8F -1.51 -10.00
255 FONTWELL 5/2*Noble Ben, 2ND 7/2 0.95 2.60
310 BEVERLEY 11/4*Atabaas Pride, 3RD 2/1 0.95 4.55
430 PERTH 1/2*Natiain W 4/6F -0.73 -10.00
530 BEVERLEY Evs*Greyfriars Abbey W 3/1 -3.30 -10.00
550 GREATLEIGHS 4/1*Merlin´s Dancer L 7/1 0.95 1.30
620 GREAT LEIGHS 100/30*Chocolate Caramel W 10/3F -3.67 -10.00
535 SOUTHWELL 10/11*Midnight Fling L 15/8F 0.95 4.85
705 SOUTHWELL 9/4*Exit Smiling L 11/8F 0.95 6.62
720 GREAT LEIGHS 2/1*Proper, 2ND 5/4F 0.95 7.25
25-Apr-08 300 SANDOWN 11/10*Charm School, 2ND 7/4F 0.95 5.18
405 WOLVERHAMPTON 5/2*Playtotheaudience, 3RD 3/1JF 0.95 3.03
26-Apr-08 140 SANDOWN 13/8*Pigeon Island L 9/4F 0.95 4.05
215 LEICESTER Evs*Rayvin Mad 2ND 13/8 0.95 5.59
315 LEICESTER 4/1*City Stable L 11/2 0.95 1.65
750 HAYDOCK Evs*Conquisto W 6/4F -1.65 -10.00
820 HAYDOCK 4/7*Meshtri W 2/5F -0.44 -10.00
835 WOLVERHAMPTON 1/8*Queen Of Naples W 2/13F -0.17 -10.00
27-Apr-08 210 BRIGHTON 4/6*Brenin Taran 2ND 6/5F 0.95 7.58
28-Apr-08 220 LINGFIELD 11/8*Nawamees W 6/4F -1.65 -10.00
430 YARMOUTH 6/4*Greyfriars Abbey L 9/4 0.95 4.05
610 WINDSOR 2/1*Dubai Petal, W 5/4F -1.38 -10.00
655 SOTHWELL 2/1*Steel City Boy L 2/1F 0.95 4.55
725 SOUTHWELL 9/4*Fantastic Lass L 9/4 0.95 4.05
29-Apr-08 420 WINCANTON 3/1*Turfshuffle, L 10/3 0.95 2.72
430 SOUTHWELL 2/1*Mid Valley 2ND 9/4 0.95 4.05
30-Apr-08 255 PONTEFRACT 3/1*Coin Of The Realm, L 2/1F 0.95 4.55
340 WORCESTER 5/2*Bamby, L 11/4F 0.95 3.30
355 ASCOT 5/2*Distinction, L 5/2F 0.95 3.64
405 PONTEFRACT 3/1*Born Tobouggie 2ND 7/4F 0.95 5.18
440 PONTEFRACT 7/4*Silver Waters L 15/8F 0.95 4.85
620 GREAT LEIGHS 11/4*Mia´s Boy 3RD 4/1 0.95 2.27