agree very much with what boyd has said but I'd play it a different way. I would dismiss russia from the reckoning as even hiddink has expressed such frustration at their level of players and this could even be beyond his magic touch.
I would take greece and sweden to qualify at 2.1 each. Should spain excel like they should on paper then you will get a small return for your stake, should spain falter as spain can then these are the two best placed to take advantage.
2.1
betfred sweden to qualify
2.1
betfred greece to qualify