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Gingertipster · 19-04-2008, 10:35

2:15 Newbury
This race boils down to two things, effectiveness on a soft surface and pace in the race. Despite 15 runners not many like to be up with the pace, just the Henry Cecil duo and Zaham. Indeed a lot like to be held up as late as possible, so there might be an advantage for front runners. Particularly with the wind at their backs.
Zaham has never run on a soft surface but his price makes it worth taking a chance. On e of my favourite horses, a real trier. Progressed throughout last year (first season to race) and I have him down as one possible to go to the top this term. Disappointed on reappearance but drawn wide, raced wide and could not get customary prominent position. Then suffered an overreach, run best ignored. If all is well can run well here. Stable in good form.
Tranquil Tiger comes from the very much in form yard of Henry Cecil. Ran o.k. on soft on two year old debut and below form only other run on a soft surface (had excuses). If equally effective on it the surface will bring his stamina in to play. Saw him at Salisbury and looked the sought to improve at four years.
Ivy Creek as Mowgli said in his excellent assessment is consistent on a soft surface. Has won first time out. It would not be a surprise though to see a more progressive rival beat him.
Apart from Zaham the other one on my 10 to follow short list is Malt Or Mash. Had the form to win at Lingfield on reappearance and duly did. I was surprised last year that such a big horse acted around Goodwood. That size may take him to better things this term. However, connections have said will not run if the ground gets softer and improvement has come on a sound surface. Whatever happens today is one to look out for.
Regime is the other possible improver. Travelled well in the St Simon here on his last three year old start but possibly did not get home in the good-soft ground. May not want much more rain. Stable in good form.
Royal And Regal may come in to it if the heavens open but may need further. Gower Song was in tremendous form in Dubai but may not get the run of the race here.

3:25Newbury
Muthabara is the talking horse of the 1000 Guineas but has a sound chance on form here. Goes well on a soft surface. I was almost tempted to back her for the 1000 after her impressive five length debut here last year. Clearly goes well fresh.
Nadoodh has the best form, improved significantly to win the Lowther on Good going. Had run reasonably on good-soft but her action suggests she may be better on a sound surface. Trainer is not in great form and (normally bullish) seems to suggest she will need the race. Has pulled a bit, and being fresh that is a worry too.
Michita could be anything or nothing, seems to be priced up on trainers form and reputation.
Lady Deauville was not far behind Muthabara at Sandown and went on to run with distinction in France. Goes really well on a soft surface. If she were trained by a top trainer would be much shorter. Having said that Paul Blockley is not in great form.
Don't Forget Faith is a rangy sort, the type that could improve significantly at three years. Won on debut last season (beat Visit) on a soft surface, so runs well fresh. Fifth behind Zarkava in Marcel Boussac. Stables runners are running well enough and can run well at a big price.

4:00 Newbury
Don't know whether to hope Confront wins easily or not, have backed him for the Derby. Beat Free Handicap winner Stimulation at Ascot on a soft surface (pair well clear) and was ante-post fav for the Racing Post Trophy (not run). Ground should bring stamina in to play but there is a big question on the pace here. May have to make his own running (raced prominently before), if not can be outspeeded.
Sir Gerry has a form chance but comes from the Fanshawe yard which has a poor record pre-summer and had no three year olds win first time up last term. Is proven on the ground and should stay. May not be suited by the pace of the race, being held up in a (possibly) slowly run race.
Beacon Lodge like his stable companion Don't Forget Faith has the size to be a better three year old. Lucky to beat Stimulation last season here but does not have much to find with the favourite on that form. Has tactical speed and soft ground form.
Paco Boy also has tactical speed but no soft ground form. Had to come from last to first on reappearance and is much better than that bare form (but had best form in the race anyway). Stable not in as good form now as it was then.
Shallal won a hot maiden at Glorious Goodwood, always up with the pace on his last of two starts. Should stay this far and might be the one to set the pace (likely big advantage). Ability to handle conditions has to be taken on trust but looks over priced here.
Without A prayer is the other one who has been prominent before. Improved in the Acomb when held up but has a tactically astute jockey aboard (Seb). May not have enough pace without a true test. Has something to find but is from one of the best trainers in the country (if not many know it yet).

19-04-2008, 10:35	#19 (permalink)
Gingertipster Value Is Everything Join Date: 02 Jul 2007 Location: Near Andover Hampshire Posts: 1,414 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Gingers (Flat) Winners 08 2:15 Newbury This race boils down to two things, effectiveness on a soft surface and pace in the race. Despite 15 runners not many like to be up with the pace, just the Henry Cecil duo and Zaham. Indeed a lot like to be held up as late as possible, so there might be an advantage for front runners. Particularly with the wind at their backs. Zaham has never run on a soft surface but his price makes it worth taking a chance. On e of my favourite horses, a real trier. Progressed throughout last year (first season to race) and I have him down as one possible to go to the top this term. Disappointed on reappearance but drawn wide, raced wide and could not get customary prominent position. Then suffered an overreach, run best ignored. If all is well can run well here. Stable in good form. Tranquil Tiger comes from the very much in form yard of Henry Cecil. Ran o.k. on soft on two year old debut and below form only other run on a soft surface (had excuses). If equally effective on it the surface will bring his stamina in to play. Saw him at Salisbury and looked the sought to improve at four years. Ivy Creek as Mowgli said in his excellent assessment is consistent on a soft surface. Has won first time out. It would not be a surprise though to see a more progressive rival beat him. Apart from Zaham the other one on my 10 to follow short list is Malt Or Mash. Had the form to win at Lingfield on reappearance and duly did. I was surprised last year that such a big horse acted around Goodwood. That size may take him to better things this term. However, connections have said will not run if the ground gets softer and improvement has come on a sound surface. Whatever happens today is one to look out for. Regime is the other possible improver. Travelled well in the St Simon here on his last three year old start but possibly did not get home in the good-soft ground. May not want much more rain. Stable in good form. Royal And Regal may come in to it if the heavens open but may need further. Gower Song was in tremendous form in Dubai but may not get the run of the race here. 3:25Newbury Muthabara is the talking horse of the 1000 Guineas but has a sound chance on form here. Goes well on a soft surface. I was almost tempted to back her for the 1000 after her impressive five length debut here last year. Clearly goes well fresh. Nadoodh has the best form, improved significantly to win the Lowther on Good going. Had run reasonably on good-soft but her action suggests she may be better on a sound surface. Trainer is not in great form and (normally bullish) seems to suggest she will need the race. Has pulled a bit, and being fresh that is a worry too. Michita could be anything or nothing, seems to be priced up on trainers form and reputation. Lady Deauville was not far behind Muthabara at Sandown and went on to run with distinction in France. Goes really well on a soft surface. If she were trained by a top trainer would be much shorter. Having said that Paul Blockley is not in great form. Don't Forget Faith is a rangy sort, the type that could improve significantly at three years. Won on debut last season (beat Visit) on a soft surface, so runs well fresh. Fifth behind Zarkava in Marcel Boussac. Stables runners are running well enough and can run well at a big price. 4:00 Newbury Don't know whether to hope Confront wins easily or not, have backed him for the Derby. Beat Free Handicap winner Stimulation at Ascot on a soft surface (pair well clear) and was ante-post fav for the Racing Post Trophy (not run). Ground should bring stamina in to play but there is a big question on the pace here. May have to make his own running (raced prominently before), if not can be outspeeded. Sir Gerry has a form chance but comes from the Fanshawe yard which has a poor record pre-summer and had no three year olds win first time up last term. Is proven on the ground and should stay. May not be suited by the pace of the race, being held up in a (possibly) slowly run race. Beacon Lodge like his stable companion Don't Forget Faith has the size to be a better three year old. Lucky to beat Stimulation last season here but does not have much to find with the favourite on that form. Has tactical speed and soft ground form. Paco Boy also has tactical speed but no soft ground form. Had to come from last to first on reappearance and is much better than that bare form (but had best form in the race anyway). Stable not in as good form now as it was then. Shallal won a hot maiden at Glorious Goodwood, always up with the pace on his last of two starts. Should stay this far and might be the one to set the pace (likely big advantage). Ability to handle conditions has to be taken on trust but looks over priced here. Without A prayer is the other one who has been prominent before. Improved in the Acomb when held up but has a tactically astute jockey aboard (Seb). May not have enough pace without a true test. Has something to find but is from one of the best trainers in the country (if not many know it yet).