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whoneedsrio · 17-04-2008, 10:04

Newmarket 3.45
Group 3
7f 3yo Colts & geldings

This used to be the top 2000 Guineas trial but apart rom Haafhd who won here before taking the Guineas in 2004 the recent winners of this have failed in the first classic. This looks a stronger race than most Craven's though.

City Leader has 4 stars
Ravens Pass has 3 stars
Scintillo & Twice Over have 2 stars

Normally 4 stars would mean an automatic selection depending on price & City Leader is as long as 16/1 & bigger on Betfair.
However he looks held on form by Ravens Pass from the Solario stakes at Sandown where Ravens Pass beat him by 7l at level weights.
City Leader then won a Group 2 at Ascot for which he has a 3lb pen today which makes him 3lb worse off with Ravens Pass today.
Ravens Pass went on the be 3l third in the Dewhurst on ground which was softer than ideal & he has the best form in the book.
Twice Over is two from two in a C&D maiden & a minor stakes here over 10f. Bare form is not up to much but he could be anything (or nothing)
Scintillo gets 2 stars because of his win in a Group 1 in Italy which is probably a good example of the rating been skewed by a win in a weak but valuable contest.

If Ravens Pass is going to win the 2000 Guineas he needs to take this in style & while he is the probable winner I'm going to leave the race alone at the odds.

Earl of Sefton
Group 3
9f 4yo+

This race in recent years is getting winners which go on to better things as with Manduro last year who won Group 1's at 8 & 10f & might well have won the Arc but for injury.
For 4yo+ races a selection must have at least 3 stars.

Pipedreamer has 4 stars
Multidimensional has 3 stars.

Pipedreamer has a similar profile to Halling who won the Cambridgeshire for Gosden before going on to Group 1 sucess with Godolphin.
Pipedreamer steps out of handicaps here & the stable is going well but with only Kandidate a confirmed front runner there may not be much pace on & he has been running in big fields where the pace was strong.
Multidimensional has not been easy to train but has Group 2 winning form from France & was hampered & maybe a bit unlucky in the Champion stakes.

Of the pair I'd go with Pipedreamer as I like an improving type but I'll only bet at a minimum of 2/1 here & 7/4 is the best on offer.

Rio.

17-04-2008, 10:04	#8 (permalink)
whoneedsrio Horse & Footie Punter Join Date: 26 Oct 2004 Posts: 1,546	Craven & Earl of Sefton Newmarket 3.45 Group 3 7f 3yo Colts & geldings This used to be the top 2000 Guineas trial but apart rom Haafhd who won here before taking the Guineas in 2004 the recent winners of this have failed in the first classic. This looks a stronger race than most Craven's though. City Leader has 4 stars Ravens Pass has 3 stars Scintillo & Twice Over have 2 stars Normally 4 stars would mean an automatic selection depending on price & City Leader is as long as 16/1 & bigger on Betfair. However he looks held on form by Ravens Pass from the Solario stakes at Sandown where Ravens Pass beat him by 7l at level weights. City Leader then won a Group 2 at Ascot for which he has a 3lb pen today which makes him 3lb worse off with Ravens Pass today. Ravens Pass went on the be 3l third in the Dewhurst on ground which was softer than ideal & he has the best form in the book. Twice Over is two from two in a C&D maiden & a minor stakes here over 10f. Bare form is not up to much but he could be anything (or nothing) Scintillo gets 2 stars because of his win in a Group 1 in Italy which is probably a good example of the rating been skewed by a win in a weak but valuable contest. If Ravens Pass is going to win the 2000 Guineas he needs to take this in style & while he is the probable winner I'm going to leave the race alone at the odds. Earl of Sefton Group 3 9f 4yo+ This race in recent years is getting winners which go on to better things as with Manduro last year who won Group 1's at 8 & 10f & might well have won the Arc but for injury. For 4yo+ races a selection must have at least 3 stars. Pipedreamer has 4 stars Multidimensional has 3 stars. Pipedreamer has a similar profile to Halling who won the Cambridgeshire for Gosden before going on to Group 1 sucess with Godolphin. Pipedreamer steps out of handicaps here & the stable is going well but with only Kandidate a confirmed front runner there may not be much pace on & he has been running in big fields where the pace was strong. Multidimensional has not been easy to train but has Group 2 winning form from France & was hampered & maybe a bit unlucky in the Champion stakes. Of the pair I'd go with Pipedreamer as I like an improving type but I'll only bet at a minimum of 2/1 here & 7/4 is the best on offer. Rio.