Quote:
Originally Posted by Grex  How do you calculate the performance figures..... for a loss, it seems to be 1/(decimal odds)..... but for a win??.... or am I just being stoopid  |
I used average win odds available, individually for home & away team, then converted to p as you figured out . . . then . . .
If not win, rating = -p
If w, rating = 1-p
So, a team average 1/2 (1.5) to win, p=0.66
if win, awarded (1-0.66) = 0.33
if lose awarded rating of -0.66
A team average 4/1 (5.0) to win, p=0.20
if win awarded (1-0.20) = 0.80
if lose awarded match rating of -0.20
The procedure just uses the bookies as an expert witness for the probability figure then awards perfromance ratings based upon how they played against that "expert" expectation. The 4/1 team was not considered a hot-shot, so a win would give a bigger reward than the 2/1 on team would get for winning. Equally, the 2/1 on team would be penalised more for losing.
The process seemed to be based upon a certain logic, but like much in football betting, squeezing a profit from the figures does not appear an easy task.
DM