[allthethings]

Picking winners in friendlies does not require reasoning, because the squads are different, the mentality different. You can say that certain teams "will want to get a result" or whatever, but wanting to get a result in a friendly means showing talent, not actually finishing off a win or a draw. The score is meaningless with regard to what goes on on the pitch...the young players can impress their coach in a 1-0 game, a 0-0 game or a 2-3 game.

Given that, your best bet is to fade the public no matter what the talent level of the teams is presumed to be. Also, limit your plays and your betting amount...don't lose a ton of cash just because you need some action today!

Here are current good lines to consider:

Bulgaria Finland +0.5 2.10
Belarus-Turkey overs 2.13
Denmark-Czech Rep pk 2.21