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robby · 25-02-2008, 16:43

Toronto -4
Toronto is my main play as well tonight. Leaning on 'crows stats to start, and noting that the one loss ATS was against the Knicks in the first game of the home and home. Clearly, Crawford was in the ultimate zone and Toronto still held in there. So I wouldn't look at it as a negative more than I would "one of those nights".

Early thoughts on the rest of the games that peaked an interest.

I really look for the Hornets to come out and make a statement tonight. The Wizards in their current state are clearly a team that should make it easy to make. Butler is still out, Arenas is still out and Stevenson is still under the injury cloud, but represented well against the Bobcats.

To me there is no question on the SU, but -10 ATS still leaves some lingering doubts. Will the Hornets dominate, or will they win cheaply?

It would be interesting to see the stats on 10 or more ATS plays from both clubs.

Washington is 5-1 ATS in last 6, 4-1 in last 5 on the road. Of those games however were against a Bobcats without Wallace, undermanned Cavs, the Knicks, and the Clippers.

Hornets are on the other side of the ATS, 3-7 out of the last 10. But they haven't been playing chumps at all. Actually from a glance they may have had one of the, if not the hardest last 10 in the league.

GS, Utah, Spurs, Rockets, Suns and Dallas are all in the mix. Lost ATS to Milwaukee, but I would say a lot of teams will the rest of the season. When it comes to the ATS lines I think Milwaukee will become one of the harder teams to nail down the rest of the year. Either they can score, or they can't.

I quite like Hornets -10. Washington continues to do a bit of traveling while the Hornets have been close to home, Stevenson while making double his season average the past couple of games (note, the teams played) he's still under the injury cloud, and it should be a statement game. Hornets need this game to build on. Washington is the team to fade till they get the duo back.

Spurs -12. This one I like as well. In what will be a low scoring game I'd presume (Spurs 3rd best defense, Hawks 10th best). Parker is back, and if the last game is under any indication, he's healthy. Ginobili continues to shine and with both of them being healthy I can't see them losing this one SU at all.

An interesting stat is that the Hawks have played 16 of their games against teams with a lower PPG average than them. They're 3-13 in those games. If you take out the first game of the year (vs Dallas) or the two games against Philli, they're 0-13.

Of those losses they've had 8 over 10. Which include Celtics (21), Spurs (12), Pistons (11, 10), Dallas (13), Raptors (11), Rockets (19). Pistons (4, 1), Port (2, 1), Hornets (6) round up the rest.

So even though they're a moderately defensive team, they clearly can get blown out by ten plus. The blow outs are 4-4 when home or away, so it's not exactly a road problem, but a problem none the less.

Bibby being sold as the aide for a "playoff run" is clearly overrated. Though they do have a moderately easy schedule the last half of the season. He's sitting under an injury cloud as well.

At first the -12 looks like a margin play and the line is pretty tight, but the digger I deep it feels like the Spurs have a solid chance to cover.

I'll look at both lines later in the day and see how they've moved.

25-02-2008, 16:43	#4 (permalink)
robby Shrewdie Punter Join Date: 03 Mar 2006 Posts: 506	Re: Nba 25/2 Toronto -4 Toronto is my main play as well tonight. Leaning on 'crows stats to start, and noting that the one loss ATS was against the Knicks in the first game of the home and home. Clearly, Crawford was in the ultimate zone and Toronto still held in there. So I wouldn't look at it as a negative more than I would "one of those nights". Early thoughts on the rest of the games that peaked an interest. I really look for the Hornets to come out and make a statement tonight. The Wizards in their current state are clearly a team that should make it easy to make. Butler is still out, Arenas is still out and Stevenson is still under the injury cloud, but represented well against the Bobcats. To me there is no question on the SU, but -10 ATS still leaves some lingering doubts. Will the Hornets dominate, or will they win cheaply? It would be interesting to see the stats on 10 or more ATS plays from both clubs. Washington is 5-1 ATS in last 6, 4-1 in last 5 on the road. Of those games however were against a Bobcats without Wallace, undermanned Cavs, the Knicks, and the Clippers. Hornets are on the other side of the ATS, 3-7 out of the last 10. But they haven't been playing chumps at all. Actually from a glance they may have had one of the, if not the hardest last 10 in the league. GS, Utah, Spurs, Rockets, Suns and Dallas are all in the mix. Lost ATS to Milwaukee, but I would say a lot of teams will the rest of the season. When it comes to the ATS lines I think Milwaukee will become one of the harder teams to nail down the rest of the year. Either they can score, or they can't. I quite like Hornets -10. Washington continues to do a bit of traveling while the Hornets have been close to home, Stevenson while making double his season average the past couple of games (note, the teams played) he's still under the injury cloud, and it should be a statement game. Hornets need this game to build on. Washington is the team to fade till they get the duo back. Spurs -12. This one I like as well. In what will be a low scoring game I'd presume (Spurs 3rd best defense, Hawks 10th best). Parker is back, and if the last game is under any indication, he's healthy. Ginobili continues to shine and with both of them being healthy I can't see them losing this one SU at all. An interesting stat is that the Hawks have played 16 of their games against teams with a lower PPG average than them. They're 3-13 in those games. If you take out the first game of the year (vs Dallas) or the two games against Philli, they're 0-13. Of those losses they've had 8 over 10. Which include Celtics (21), Spurs (12), Pistons (11, 10), Dallas (13), Raptors (11), Rockets (19). Pistons (4, 1), Port (2, 1), Hornets (6) round up the rest. So even though they're a moderately defensive team, they clearly can get blown out by ten plus. The blow outs are 4-4 when home or away, so it's not exactly a road problem, but a problem none the less. Bibby being sold as the aide for a "playoff run" is clearly overrated. Though they do have a moderately easy schedule the last half of the season. He's sitting under an injury cloud as well. At first the -12 looks like a margin play and the line is pretty tight, but the digger I deep it feels like the Spurs have a solid chance to cover. I'll look at both lines later in the day and see how they've moved.