15th September 2012
Chester Betting: Balding's Goldoni can upset Modun in Chester's feature race
2.40 Chester: Minstrell Recruitment Stand Cup (Listed) (1m4f66y)
Another very competitive card at Chester on Saturday and their feature race is the Listed race over a mile and a half, the ground is good to soft and we have just 7 runners going to post. Last year Godolphin won this with Debussy on a BHA rating of 110 and they are represented this year with Modun who is on the same mark. It’s a slightly stronger heat than twelve months ago but they know what’s required and the bookmakers make him a warm favourite and is 6/4 with Paddy Power.
Modun was with Michael Stoute last season and looked a really progressive type but only managed to win once on the AW at Kempton but that was a Group 3 race and has contested at that kind of level ever since. Still to win since being switched to the boys in blue but this is a sharp drop in class for the 5yo and he showed his well being with a decent third to Dandino last weekend. He will be hard to beat here although it does look like a tactical race is in store and jockey Silvestre De Sousa will need to be careful if it’s a slow run affair.
On ratings Glen’s Diamond looks the danger being only a pound behind Modun on official figures, his losing run now stretches back to May 2011 and 9 races although he has been given some very stiff tasks. This is his grade and should also appreciate the step back in trip after attempting 2 miles the last twice. He has won around these turns so everything looks in his favour although he will want to make use of his stamina and not get caught flat-footed in the closing stages.
The top one Area Fifty One has been trying longer trips lately too without much success, his last win was over 10f at Newmarket and seems to reserve his best when the ground is on the firm side, he may struggle to get home in these conditions and is one horse that will take advantage of a false race. Goldoni trained by Andrew Balding won the Derby trial at Epsom earlier in the year and that was a tactical race and he wont mind if it’s a muddling affair, he likes soft ground so wont want it to dry out and although he has 11lbs to find with Modun on figures he receives a 9lb age allowance so its not such a big gap in class as it first appears and could be the one to trouble him. Of the others Amoya is out classed, Good Morning Star has had plenty of chances but has won around here and Naseem Alyasmeen needs to improve about a stone to get involved.
Interesting little contest and I think it rests between the favourite Modun and the Balding 3yo Goldoni. Modun has promised a lot in his career and has become a frustrating sort and this drop in class is make or break for the Godolphin runner, he wont be much of a price and may be worth opposing with Goldoni who hasn’t done a lot wrong this season and wont mind the sticky ground.
2pts Goldoni 5/1 Ladbrokes
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Author: Ray Singpost