5th February 2012

Cheltenham Ante Post Betting: Rock On Ruby a solid each way chance for the Champion Hurdle

Cheltenham Ante Post Betting: Champion Hurdle

The feature race of the first day looks likely to be heading back to Ireland and the race really does look at the mercy of Hurricane Fly after a breath taking seasonal reappearance in the Irish equivalent of this race last time out. The horse has an unbelievable cruising speed and seems to find an extra gear without ever coming off the bridle. From an ante post perspective the value has gone. It was around 3-1 a while back with so many doubts about its wellbeing but all those doubts were banished when it cantered past its rivals last time out to win with ease. It is now a best priced 10-11 with BetVictor.

The horse it just keeps beating on a number of occasions is Thousand Stars and that is 25-1 in the ante post lists. With the way it has been beaten by Hurricane Fly I would struggle to back this at 125-1 and I honestly feel it has no chance whatsoever come March. Nearer the head of the betting we have Grandouet at around 15-2.

Grandouet improved to win two races after initially being beaten by Sam Winner in a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham. It then ran in the Triumph Hurdle and I felt it was put in its place by Zarkandar, beaten 5 lengths on the day. It was brought down when they re-opposed at Aintree and then won its first Grade 1 race when beating Kumbeshwar at Punchestown by 9 lengths. It looked to be all over Celestial Halo on its seasonal debut in November when it took a tumble and it then turned out 2 weeks later to show it hadn’t been affected too badly as it beat Marsh Warbler by 8 lengths at Haydock. It returned to Cheltenham in December to beat Overturn by 4 lengths in a Grade 2 hurdle with Brampour and Menorah in 3^rd and 4^th. It is another horse where the value has gone, having been available at 14-1 previously and I think it will be exposed as not quite good enough come March and wouldn’t want to be on at the current odds ante post.

Zarkandar is 3^rd in the ante post betting lists at 8-1 and is a very lightly raced 5 year old. It had one run over hurdles before heading to last year’s festival. That was at Kempton late February when thrown straight in at Grade 2 level to win by 2 ¼ lengths. It won the Triumph Hurdle convincingly and looked impressive in doing so and then went to Aintree shortly after to win again at Grade 1 level, beating Kumbeshwar by 1 ¼ lengths.

It has not been seen this season yet but has an entry for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on 11^th February, for which it is a 7-2 chance. They will be hoping the weather has cleared up by then and will surely want to get at least one run into the horse before heading back to the festival for the Champion Hurdle.

Two that hold recent form lines are Binocular and Rock On Ruby. The former is a previous Champion hurdle winner but has been hit and miss ever since. Looking back at that win I am not convinced it was the strongest champion hurdle of recent times and last year we saw it beaten 9 lengths by a true champion in Hurricane Fly at Punchestown and beaten 13 lengths at Aintree by Oscar Whisky. It was 2^nd to Overturn on its seasonal debut in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle with Celestial Halo a further 16 lengths back in 3^rd. It then beat Rock On Ruby by a neck off level weights with Overturn 8 lengths back in 3^rd.

Rock On Ruby made a late error at the last hurdle that probably put paid to its chances and it can’t afford such errors at Cheltenham. It looks to be improving and to get so close to Binocular off levels was a great achievement for a horse that is still quite inexperienced. It was 2^nd at last years festival in a Grade 1 novice hurdle, was 2^nd at the same track to Bob’s Worth in January 2011 and won at the track in November 2010. It has not been out of the first three since its debut back in November 2009 and if it has brushed up its hurdling it could go close at a decent price come March. It is currently a 14-1 chance with Coral while other bookies only go 10-1. They will of course have to find another jockey with Ruby likely to ride Hurricane Fly. Noel Fehily would be my choice for the horse and he was on board for the course win. Harry Skelton was on board when it won at Newbury. It looks a solid each way chance to me and worthy of ante post investment at the price.

Most of the other outsiders look exposed and short of top class, including Overturn, Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied and Celestial Halo and I’d rather take the 14-1 on a lightly raced, young and improving type at this stage.

1pt EW Rock On Ruby 14-1 Coral

» £50 Free Bet at Coral

Author: Formbook Frank

Cheltenham - Champion Hurdle


Hurricane Fly	6
Rock On Ruby	9
Simonsig	11
Spirit Son	11
Cinders And Ashes	13
Grandouet	13
Zarkandar	15
Darlan	17
Grumeti	21
Oscar Whisky	21
Hisaabaat	26
Binocular	26
Peddlers Cross	26
Overturn	34
Cotton Mill	34
Alderwood	34
Thousand Stars	34
Trifolium	34
Midnight Game	41
Go Native	51
Countrywide Flame	51
Montbazon	51
Minsk	51
Prospect Wells	51
Galileo's Choice	51
Balder Succes	51
Pearl Swan	51
Steps To Freedom	51
Zaidpour	51
Darroun	51
Oscars Well	51
Tetlami	67
Dodging Bullets	67
Baby Mix	67
Sadlers Risk	67