8th July 2012
ATP Umag Betting: The defending champion looks a bit overpriced
The Olympics have changed the schedule of this year by a considerable margin, so we are going to see six high-level tournaments this week - and that might actually be a record of some sort. Regular readers know that I like to take a break from match betting on Mondays and that is a tradition that I am going to follow today as well. Like always, however, I am going to take some small punts in the outright markets.
The tournament in Umag should certainly bring a lot of excitement with so many solid players in the line-up, but there is one pick that stands out in the outright markets. Marin Cilic is rated as a 2.75 favourite with Stan James, but I do not think that there is any value in that. Instead, I am going to back the defending champion, Aleksandr Dolgopolov.
The talented Ukrainian is an unpredictable player, but he can go well in a few tournaments and I expect him to do well in Umag this year. He was playing outstanding tennis last year and the return to familiar conditions might get him back on track. His half of the draw is quite tough, but he needs a bit of adversity and the fact that he will probably have to go through guys like Fabio Fognini or Carlos Berlocq should get him focused.
Marin Cilic is naturally the biggest threat, but you have to remember that he managed to beat the Croat in the finals here last year, so there should be no problems in that match-up. And if that is the only threat, the price looks too big and I am willing to have a small punt on the defending champion.
Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov to win ATP Umag for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Stan James
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Author: Topspin Tommy