27th July 2012
Ascot Betting: John Biscuit to follow up with another handicap win
Ascot 3.55pm – Class 3 Handicap – 1m2f – Firm
10 runners are expected to head to post for this handicap and at the moment the horse just shading favouritism is Robin Hoods Bay at odds of 4-1 with Betfred. The in form Richard Hughes takes the ride on the favourite and he has 19 winners in the last 14 days. It has yet to win over 10f but it does have wins over 8f and 12f and was 3rd to Danadana over 10f at Newmarket, that rival now rated 102.
A recent winner that I like the look of is John Biscuit. It won just 23 days ago when taking a class 4 handicap with ease at Epsom. It is only 4 years old, looked to have improved that day and ran on good ground. It was 4th and 10th previously on good to firm but was hampered when 10th. It won by 2 ½ lengths last time out and is up 6lb for that win to a rating of 82. It was 3rd twice off ratings of 80 but not over this trip and 10f looks ideal.
Mcvicar also won last time out and ran just 9 days ago. It took a 10f race, also at Epsom but off a mark of 64. It is only up another 2lb today off 66 and is still open to improvement, being just 3 years old and improving to win last time out. Recent form has been on a softer surface but it shouldn’t be too hindered by quicker ground and could go close.
Camberley Two has been out of form this season and has finished 9th, 8th and 6th. Its last win was over 1m off a rating of 79. It races off 81 today but has never won over 10f and was 8th and 6th when tried over this trip. I’m not totally convinced by this horse and it took it 5 attempts to get off the mark and win a lowly class 6 handicap.
Indian Jack is just 6-1 but was last of 12 last time out, although that was on soft ground over a mile. It has 4 career wins, 2 over 7f and 2 over a mile. Its last win was off a rating of 85, it races off 88 now but is up an extra 2f. If the step up in trip helps the horse improve it will go close and it has looked outpaced at times over 8f so that could be a possibility. Jamie Spencer rides for Luca Cumani and he hasn’t ridden the horse before.
Lyssio, Colour Guard and Greylami are all 12-1 chances. Lyssio has 2 wins from 23 career starts and those 2 wins were its two first runs back in 2010. It has dropped from a rating of 100 to a rating of 86 and was 5th of 10 last time out over 10f off a rating of 87. Colour Guard was 2nd in a 10f class 3 handicap but at Lingfield but it is now 9lb above its last win and was last of 10 just 12 days ago. Greylami last won in July 2010 off a rating of 90 and now races off 82 but has not looked great on turf. A return to quicker ground could be the key and the last win was on good to firm ground.
Amoya won a class 4 handicap over a mile back in May and now races off a rating just 1lb higher but over an extra 2f. It has raced 5 times over 10f and has been well beaten each time by distances ranging from 9 ¼ lengths to 28 lengths. It is a 20-1 chance and is easily passed over.
Toughness Danon is rated just 77 and looks out of its depth here. Its last 2 flat starts were over 12f but if we look back far enough we can see a Group 3 win over 10f back in September 2009. Hard to fancy on recent form but did have some ability at one point.
2pts WIN – John Biscuit 9-2 Bet365 (BOG)
Reverse Forecast – John Biscuit/Robin Hoods Bay
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Author: Formbook Frank